First four by Deezl, last four by Treehugger
*EDITOR'S NOTE: The predictions are for fun, we have no idea what's going to happen, and neither does anyone else. Take them with a grain of salt, we know we picked optimistically on the foreigner side. The analysis of the match-up is serious though, if you want to object about bias, object to the write-up...!
Mousesports vs.
Quantic
Mousesports returns after a stunning run in the previous season of Team Arena where they took a second place finish amidst a field of Koreans, including defeating the tyrants of the GSTL, SlayerS. Curiously, their first opponent is one half of the team that beat them a sound 5-3 in the finals last year—Quantic (formerly of QIM).
However, as good as Quantic is, they are significantly less scary without the muscle of IM backing them up, and so Mousesports ought to be considered the favorites here. Their top line-up of ThorZaIN, MaNa, and MorroW has done wonders for them, as at least one always seems to come up big when they need it most. In the reserves, biGs, HasuObs, and (possibly) HeRoMaRinE represent a strong line-up in their own right, and are capable of providing a solid foundation for the team aces. biGs especially has made waves recently on ladder, marching all the way up into the top 20 EU GM (as of this writing) and has been seen higher.
For Quantic, success will depend on their two aces, SaSe and the enigmatic NaNiwa. While little has been heard from SaSe recently, that's not an indication of fading skill by any means. For NaNiwa, a trip to IEM Kiev ended in disappointment, but he can make up for it with a strong performance here. His recent play has seemed more refined than ever, even if it might have lacked variety at IEM. For Mousesports, the road to winning this runs through the two Quantic protoss aces, and their potential-packed Korean pick-up Apocalypse. Any losses taken to Quantic's rearguard, most notably Theognis and Shuffle, will be bad unforced errors. If Mouse can put SaSe and NaNiwa into the position of having to all-kill or something like it, then they'll be where they want to be, and should win.
Prediction: Mousesports 5-3.
New Star HoSeo vs.
Dignitas
I’m excited about this match, not only to see how Dignitas fares against the star-factory that NSHoseo is beginning to become, but also which new players NSHoseo will send out. NSHoSeo is new to the foreign teamleague circuit, so how seriously they take the main event here is something of a mystery. It seemed that in the GSTL every other week we’d see a new crazy player with customized NSHoseo builds, but the team has been out of the spotlight for a little while.
Dignitas has always been a powerhouse in the European scene, but they seem to be getting a little rusty around the edges. SeleCT and SjoW have been notably absent from their representative scenes, and the only players who have garnered recent attention are players that were their traditional second tier—Killer, DreAm and BlinG. Those players alone probably won't cut it if NSHoSeo takes this at all seriously.
But the Koreans are just as liable to be a bit surprised by the fight in the foreign team, and Dignitas does have plenty of talent. I'd love to see some great games from the Dignitas up-and-comers, and a resurgence from SeleCT here.
Prediction: 5-3 New Star HoSeo
EG vs.
oGs
This is another match that I’m greatly looking forward to. oGs is a traditional powerhouse, but is recently out of both MC, who just transferred to SK Gaming, and Code-S stalwart Zenio, who moved out of the house and is now on Team Liquid. EG on the other hand has just acquired JYP, the TSL Protoss ace that spent this season in Code S.
But don’t overlook oGs; they're still a rock solid team with a number of very good players, and their newest ace, oGsFin, is a daunting broodwar professional with a stack of precision builds and cheeses. TheStC showed reasonable finishes at foreign events last year as well, and they’ll be looking to SuperNova to show some consistency and come through for them big this match-up.
EG’s line-up is also to be feared. IdrA has had some time off to practice and prepare, and has proven time and time again that he can rise against the best players in the world. JYP is a strategic protoss with a weakness to Terran but is extremely good against protoss and zerg. Puma is a foreign tournament beast but has yet to really make his mark in Korea. And we haven’t heard much from Huk lately, but we know he's good, and this will be a chance to see what he’s been up to. I think there’s a lot of potential in a front-loaded EG team, but each player has clear weaknesses which can more easily be exploited in a team league format.
My thoughts? This is especially a fascinating match because both teams will play with even lag on the Korean server. I think if HuK plays, his performance against the oGs Terrans will be pivotal to an EG win, as terrans could prove EG's achilles heal. IdrA’s mood will also have a lot to do with what calibre of player he can draw out and who he can defeat.
I think this is going to be the must-watch series of the opening rounds.
Prediction: 5-4 EG
coL.MVP vs.
Team Liquid
One of the first and most interesting foreign team partnerships, coL.MVP, takes on one of the most visible teams around in, TLAF-Liquid, and this one is going to be a slugfest. No offense to the players at compLexity, but there is a clear disparity in skill between their American-based Sc2 squad led by fearless leader CatZ and their Korean counterparts at MvP. With the double elimination format and the importance of not falling out in the first round, I think we’re going to see a lot more MVP than compLexity, and Liquid has the talent to bring it out.
Team Liquid, meanwhile, has a consistent and experienced roster that makes strong tournament showings in the international scene. Their Zerg lineup of Sheth, Ret, Zenio, TLO, and Haypro is diverse and dangerous, and HerO has shown before that he can take on anyone. But they lack a solid terran option as Jinro continues to slump, and they might lack a protoss option as well, as HerO has seemed out of sorts for a month now. If they rely on their zergs alone, they can go places, but wins might be hard to come by. Moreover, in the last IPL TAC, Liquid` bowed out shockingly early, notching a 1-10 total record against ReIGN and QIM.
coLMVP’s roster is larger by far, but despite last season's tremendous inspiration from Keen, the limited consistency of Noblesse and everyone else means they lack aces outside of their team league standby, DongRaeGu. They have the addition of qxc as a wildcard, who was one of the scariest players in the foreign scene when he was in form, but nobody knows how much he’s been practicing with his studies. Otherwise, it's hard to see who will come out from the compLexity side of things. MvP has sent players like finale and TAiLS out before, but could get DRG and Genius if needed. Liquid` will need to beat some serious aces to advance.
The ace match-up to look for by far is going to be DongRaeGu against Hero. Hero has legendary PvZ, with sublime builds and harassment techniques and famous warp prism usage. DongRaeGu, on the other hand, is known primarily for his ZvT matchup, but is no slouch with mutalisks in any situation and has been on fire recently, while Hero has had trouble getting out of code A. I predict a long management game if it occurs, and the winner will be simply who can anticipate the other player the best.
Whoever survives that match has a high chance of taking running games off of the other team and taking a huge lead or sweeping from there. Call it bias if you want, (ok, yeah, it's clearly bias) but my bet is on a Liquid win - I think that even if Hero doesn’t come through for them, they still have strong outs in Zenio, Ret and Sheth, and their motivation after last IPL TAC will propel them to the top.
Prediction: Liquid` 5-4 in some great games.
Team SCV Life vs
ReIGN
On paper, this could be simple; Korean team, foreign team, Koreans win. But there's a lot more at play here that has a potential upset written all over it. First off, TSL has been undergone a ton of stress and difficulty recently, with aLive and possibly Heart having left the team, and their Coach becoming embroiled in a ton of drama. The situation in the team house cannot be good, and there's definitely reason to worry that the team can compete to the best of their abilities here, let alone make it through the season without disbanding. And secondly, ReIGN looks like a team on a mission, falling by the slimmest of margins to FXO in the NASL Teamleague. Against a weakened Korean opponent here, they must seize the opportunity.
TSL has but a skeleton crew left over, and so we know pretty much exactly who will play for them. RevivaL, Symbol, and HyuN make up their main zerg line-up, Polt is their lone proven terran, and Cyrano their only protoss (EN: Forgot about Dream). Of the bunch, only Polt and RevivaL are heavily tested, while Symbol has some good online results, and Cyrano has nothing in a year. The most interesting of their players is HyuN, who is the most recent elephant to switch over from BW, and who made it into Code A on his first try.
For ReIGN, there are only slightly less options, with four players currently on the top roster. But the line-up is a lot more colorful and experienced. Artist and Inori are their two Korean aces, and both will be surely called into service. While Inori's PvP sniping skills will be less needed here, Artist needs to have a big day if ReIGN is to advance here. KiWiKaKi and SLush bring up the next line of defense, and they can go toe to toe with the Koreans as well, especially if they break out the surprising strategies that they're well known for. That leaves us with Axslav, giX and Future, one of whom could play, and two who will not. Neither will be favored against any of the TSL players, although Axslav would definitely have the best chance of the bunch. His recent acquisition however, might not make him elidgible to play. We might simply see one of ReIGN's reserve players come out first to draw out the first TSL player and allow them to be better sniped.
ReIGN has good results recently, but this is a tough match for them. If they can get beyond Polt however, things open up. The recent disarray in the TSL house and the absence of aLive hurts TSL a good deal, and that ought to be enough.
Prediction: 5-2 ReIGN
FXO vs
Vile
Vile had a tremendous run through the qualifiers, make no mistake about it. Comfortably beating mTw, Clash, imba.FXO, and finally ZeNex, this is a team that clearly has a confidence in itself that it didn't tell anyone else about. Still, on paper, I just don't see it; ChAnCe, Illusion, State and Yong make up a good front four, and DdoRo, Hawk, and Spanishiwa have notched a few MLG wins here and there. It's a vastly better line-up that you might've remembered. But is it really enough to take on an elite Korean team like FXO? My heart says yes, but my brain says; prove it again.
FXO is one of the most highly regarded teams out there. GuMiHo, Lucky, Leenock, and Oz represent not just four ace players, but four of the most talented and fastest rising players in the world. Moreover, FXO has shown their willingness to deploy them in foreign teamleagues, and so Vile must plan to run the full gauntlet if they want to succeed. Their potential fifth could be anyone, maybe team coach Choya, the famous TheBest, or perhaps one of their foreign players. But the point is that FXO's line-up will probably be the toughest thing anyone will see in this teamleague, and that's not a good sign for Vile.
If the North Americans win, it'll be because they bottled the magic that propelled them through the qualifiers, and distributed heavy doses. You can qualify their win somewhat, they never met a top Korean team until the finals, where they played a ZeNex team that had already made it through. But that only goes so far; imba.FXO and mTw have strong players, and Clash is made up of Code B Koreans. Vile did truly earn their spot here, but against FXO it's hard to see much of a path to victory. One issue might be that their players aren't really exposed a great deal, and so it's hard to judge the skill of the players. But in the qualifier, they leaned surprisingly little on Yong, and very much on ChAnCe and State, who came up big on multiple occasions. Same deal applies here, and Ilusion and Yong will need to provide more support than what was shown in the qualifiers.
Ah, if Vile wins, it'll already be one of the stories of the tournament, but the fantastic four of FXO look too strong to me. I expect Vile to get a couple nice wins, but nothing beyond that.
Prediction: FXO 5-2
Startale vs
ZeNex
Did ZeNex dodge a bullet when SlayerS withdrew? Maybe they did, but with Startale as the replacement, you still can't say they got it easy. Despite a series of ever-more ridiculous logos, ST has continued to produce reliably good players for a while now, and even if none of them ever make it all the way, this is a team that is strong and definitely still a better one than poor ZeNex.
The perpetual bottom feeders of the GSTL, ZeNex has had some ups, but mostly downs in Sc2. Their qualification to this event was proof that they still can notch wins, but losing to Vile in the finals didn't help their case so much. In that event, they relied heavily on Sparta, with EXTREME, Life, Pet, Mushroom, and Cutter all making appearances. If you don't know these players, don't worry, you probably shouldn't. Against Startale, what worked against x6, It's GoSu, and DTG probably won't again, but what choice does ZeNex have? Life is their ace, and he'll need to be their workhorse if they hope to advance. If EXTREME and Sparta can get a few wins before passing it off to him, it's probably where ZeNex expects to be. Mushroom, Pet, and the rest have rarely ever been impressive, and if Startale doesn't ignore this completely, they shouldn't give up ground to ZeNex's leftovers.
For Startale, there's a wealth of excellent talent that all feels like it failed to meet it's full potential. Of course, there's Bomber, but there's also AcE and Squirtle, perhaps the two most disappointing players in Sc2. But they're still good, of course, and still dangerous for ZeNex. The current leaders of ST are Curious and PartinG, who both could really be something if only they'd.... go out and do it. PartinG is something of a PvT expert, and so don't expect Sparta to make it past him. Curious is a super player all around, but his ZvZ is particularly good, and so he will be Startale's most likely response to Life. And if not, there's always Bomber.
ZeNex isn't the better team here, and with Startale on even latency, there's nothing weird to get in the way of the ST win.
Prediction: Startale 5-2
Prime vs
Empire
In yet another Korea vs International team battle, the Eastern European-heavy Empire take on the GSTL runners-up Prime. Empire is another extremely worthy foreign opponent, and their recent runs in the EGMC and the last GCPL attest to their ability to hang with, and upset the most famous teams in the foreign scene. For Prime, they are often underappreciaed as a Korean team, with MKP being their only real noteworthy player.
But Prime
is dangerous, and in the past, players like Creator, AnNyeong, BbongBbong and cOre have proven their use along with MKP. They made it to the GSTL finals with a lot of nerve and a great team attitude that had them celebrating like madmen when they were put through into the playoffs. If they bring that kind of fire to the IPL TAC, then they will do seriously well. But if they mail it in, or if the magic isn't there anymore, they could get upset here.
Empire actually may be the best foreign vs korean chance in the tournament. Led by the Beast from the East; Kas, and backed up by one of Europe's most underrated players in Beastyqt, they have plenty of explosive potential. The predictable, safe, and solid Happy will become less predictable when he plays opponents who don't know him, and thus he could make some waves here as well. Most importantly, the addition of viOlet last week gives Empire some semblance of racial diversity, and also gives them a credible threat against protoss, which was previous a gaping weakness. If they play the series intelligently, springing viOlet on Creator or cOre, then they could clean up with the brunt of their powerful terran attack.
Maybe the toughest call of the entire first round for me, I'd love to pick Empire here, but my gut says that Prime will find a way to pull it out. What's a TL newspost however without liberal helpings of foreigner bias?
Prediction: Empire 5-3
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